ElvavsNõmme Kalju II

Elva are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Nõmme Kalju II are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Elva hold a 22.4-point power-rating edge (54.1 v 31.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 75.4% in the Esiliiga A, while Elva holds the strongest overall chance at 75% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 87% for over 2.5 goals.