Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Elva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Elva are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Maardu are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Elva hold an 11.9-point power-rating edge (54.1 v 42.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 64.3% in the Esiliiga A, while Elva holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 77% BTTS chance and 84% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Elva
Probability
64.3%
Model confidence
64.3%
Elva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60