Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Durango · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Durango are 2W-0D-0L in their last 2 (WW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded, while Piratas are 1W-1D-0L in their last 2 (WD), averaging 0.50 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 0 of those 4 games and 0 passed 2.5 goals, and Piratas hold a 3.8-point power-rating edge (55.1 v 58.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.8% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Durango holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Durango
Probability
35.5%
Model confidence
14.8%
Durango has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 0 · avg 1.00/0.00
GF 1 · GA 0 · avg 0.50/0.00