Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dundalk · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dundalk are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DLDDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Waterford are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Dundalk hold an 8.5-point power-rating edge (50.5 v 42.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.8% in the Premier Division, while Dundalk holds the strongest overall chance at 54% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dundalk
Probability
54.0%
Model confidence
10.8%
Dundalk has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60