Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ST Mirren · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Dumbarton are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 3.00 conceded, while ST Mirren are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WWDDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and ST Mirren hold a 49.5-point power-rating edge (27.9 v 77.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.3% in the League Cup, while ST Mirren holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 67% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
ST Mirren
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
ST Mirren has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 15 · avg 0.60/3.00
GF 9 · GA 4 · avg 1.80/0.80