Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Lugano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-2
Dukagjini are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded, while FC Lugano are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and FC Lugano hold a 68.8-point power-rating edge (11.2 v 80.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 60.8% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while FC Lugano holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
FC Lugano
Probability
60.8%
Model confidence
60.8%
FC Lugano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60