Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dordrecht · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dordrecht are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDWWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Jong Ajax are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Dordrecht hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.0% in the Eerste Divisie, while Dordrecht holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dordrecht
Probability
56.3%
Model confidence
11.0%
Dordrecht has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60