Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Dorados · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Dorados are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Tlaxcala are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Dorados hold a 49.7-point power-rating edge (68.0 v 18.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.2% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Dorados holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Dorados
Probability
65.3%
Model confidence
10.2%
Dorados has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80