Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Virtus · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Dila are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Virtus are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Virtus hold a 19.9-point power-rating edge (27.9 v 47.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.0% in the UEFA Europa Conference League, while Virtus holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Virtus
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
13.0%
Virtus has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40