GGOALVIO

Ireland · Premier Division · 7/3/2026, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Derry City · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Derry City are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Waterford are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Derry City hold an 8.0-point power-rating edge (50.0 v 42.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 50.3% in the Premier Division, while Derry City holds the strongest overall chance at 50% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Derry City

Probability

50.3%

Model confidence

50.3%

Derry City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Derry CityWDLWL

GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
WaterfordWLWDL

GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Derry CityWaterford
43.2Attack45.7
60.5Defence40.7
40.7Form34.6
50.0Power42.0
1.68xG0.97
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