Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Derby · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Derby are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Valencia are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Derby hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (44.3 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.1% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Derby holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Derby
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Derby has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80