Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lincoln · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Derby are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lincoln are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Lincoln hold a 37.7-point power-rating edge (15.3 v 53.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.2% in the League Cup, while Lincoln holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lincoln
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
14.2%
Lincoln has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00