GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 4/11/2026, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Deportivo Maldonado · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Deportivo Maldonado are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Club Nacional are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Deportivo Maldonado hold an 8.4-point power-rating edge (61.9 v 53.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.0% in the Primera División, while Deportivo Maldonado holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 47% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Deportivo Maldonado

Probability

52.0%

Model confidence

13.0%

Deportivo Maldonado has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Deportivo MaldonadoWLWLW

GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Club NacionalDLWWL

GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Deportivo MaldonadoClub Nacional
55.1Attack50.7
65.2Defence55.1
60.9Form50.7
61.9Power53.4
1.63xG0.94
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