Defensor Sportingvs
Liverpool Montevideo
SCHEDULEDUruguay · Primera División · 8/16/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Defensor Sporting are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Liverpool Montevideo are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Liverpool Montevideo hold a 3.1-point power-rating edge (49.1 v 52.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 30.1% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 13% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
30.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60