Defensor Sportingvs
Club Nacional
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 3/21/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Defensor Sporting are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLLW), averaging 0.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Club Nacional are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Club Nacional hold a 5.3-point power-rating edge (48.1 v 53.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.9% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 32% BTTS chance and 23% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 3 · avg 0.20/0.60
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00