GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 2/21/2026, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Defensor Sporting are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Cerro Largo are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 48.1 against 48.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 30.7% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 22% BTTS chance and 12% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

43.8%

Model confidence

30.7%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Defensor SportingWDDWD

GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Cerro LargoLWLDD

GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Defensor SportingCerro Largo
27.5Attack34.8
69.6Defence63.8
39.1Form42.0
48.1Power48.3
0.64xG0.58
View match centre →