GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Defensor Sporting · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Defensor Sporting are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cerro are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Defensor Sporting hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (48.1 v 37.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 28.3% in the Primera División, while Defensor Sporting holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Defensor Sporting

Probability

44.9%

Model confidence

28.3%

Defensor Sporting has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Defensor SportingLDLDD

GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
CerroWWLLW

GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Defensor SportingCerro
27.5Attack21.7
69.6Defence50.7
39.1Form31.9
48.1Power37.9
0.89xG0.40
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