Defensor Sportingvs
Cerro
COMPLETEDUruguay · Primera División · 8/3/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Defensor Sporting · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Defensor Sporting are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cerro are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Defensor Sporting hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (48.1 v 37.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 28.3% in the Primera División, while Defensor Sporting holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 14% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Defensor Sporting
Probability
44.9%
Model confidence
28.3%
Defensor Sporting has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80