GGOALVIO

Uruguay · Primera División · 3/8/2026, 11:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0

Highconfidence

Defensor Sporting are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Central Espanol are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Central Espanol hold a 5.3-point power-rating edge (48.1 v 53.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 27.3% in the Primera División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Draw

Probability

41.6%

Model confidence

27.3%

Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Defensor SportingLLWWD

GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Central EspanolLWWWD

GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40

BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
Defensor SportingCentral Espanol
27.5Attack40.6
69.6Defence62.3
39.1Form52.2
48.1Power53.4
0.65xG0.69
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