De Graafschapvs
Jong AZ
SCHEDULEDNetherlands · Eerste Divisie · 8/17/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
De Graafschap · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
De Graafschap are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Jong AZ are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Jong AZ hold a 5.4-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 50.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.8% in the Eerste Divisie, while De Graafschap holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
De Graafschap
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
11.8%
De Graafschap has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20