GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 5/13/2026, 11:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

DC United are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWWDD), averaging 2.20 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Chicago Fire are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 10.5-point power-rating edge (48.0 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 47.1% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chicago Fire

Probability

47.1%

Model confidence

47.1%

Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

DC UnitedDWWDD

GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Chicago FireLLWDW

GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
DC UnitedChicago Fire
48.1Attack62.7
46.3Defence54.9
42.6Form56.9
48.0Power58.6
1.36xG1.92
View match centre →