Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Danubio · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Danubio are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Progreso are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.00 scored and 2.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Danubio hold a 5.8-point power-rating edge (41.8 v 36.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 21.1% in the Primera División, while Danubio holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 22% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Danubio
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
21.1%
Danubio has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
GF 0 · GA 11 · avg 0.00/2.20