Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ESMTK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Csepel are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded, while ESMTK are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWLW), averaging 3.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and ESMTK hold a 33.5-point power-rating edge (31.3 v 64.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.1% in the NB III - Southeast, while ESMTK holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
ESMTK
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
12.1%
ESMTK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20