Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
CSA · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
CSA are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Ipatinga are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and CSA hold an 11.8-point power-rating edge (63.9 v 52.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 55.3% in the Serie D, while CSA holds the strongest overall chance at 55% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 30% BTTS chance and 29% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
CSA
Probability
55.3%
Model confidence
55.3%
CSA has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 5 · GA 17 · avg 1.00/3.40