Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cruzeiro are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Santos are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 7.5-point power-rating edge (51.3 v 43.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.7% in the Serie A, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 53% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
12.7%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60