Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cruzeiro are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WDWLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Mirassol are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 6.1-point power-rating edge (51.3 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 13.9% in the Serie A, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 42% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
13.9%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00