Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruzeiro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cruzeiro are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Coritiba are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (51.3 v 49.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 38.4% in the Serie A, while Cruzeiro holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruzeiro
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Cruzeiro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60