Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cruz Azul · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Cruz Azul are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWDW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Puebla are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruz Azul hold an 11.4-point power-rating edge (62.6 v 51.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.3% in the Liga MX, while Cruz Azul holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 57% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cruz Azul
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Cruz Azul has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80