GGOALVIO

World · Leagues Cup · 8/14/2026, 1:00:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Cruz Azul · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Cruz Azul are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWLWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Chicago Fire are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold an 8.3-point power-rating edge (83.3 v 91.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.8% in the Leagues Cup, while Cruz Azul holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Cruz Azul

Probability

36.5%

Model confidence

12.8%

Cruz Azul has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Cruz AzulWWLWW

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Chicago FireWWWLL

GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Cruz AzulChicago Fire
50.0Attack83.3
83.3Defence83.3
100.0Form100.0
83.3Power91.7
1.46xG1.45
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