GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 8/15/2026, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Monarcas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Cruz Azul Hidalgo are 0W-2D-1L in their last 3 (LDD), averaging 0.33 scored and 1.33 conceded, while Monarcas are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Monarcas hold a 36.6-point power-rating edge (32.7 v 69.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.3% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while Monarcas holds the strongest overall chance at 49% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 58% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Monarcas

Probability

48.7%

Model confidence

12.3%

Monarcas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Cruz Azul HidalgoLDD

GF 1 · GA 4 · avg 0.33/1.33

BTTS 1/3O2.5 1/3
MonarcasWLWWL

GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
Cruz Azul HidalgoMonarcas
11.1Attack88.9
55.6Defence55.6
22.2Form66.7
32.7Power69.4
1.19xG1.73
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