Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Criciuma · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Criciuma are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Goias are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLDWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Criciuma hold a 15.8-point power-rating edge (64.6 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 22.7% in the Serie B, while Criciuma holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 25% BTTS chance and 20% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Criciuma
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
22.7%
Criciuma has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00