Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cremonese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Cremonese are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Sampdoria are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Cremonese hold a 43.7-point power-rating edge (64.7 v 21.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.1% in the Coppa Italia, while Cremonese holds the strongest overall chance at 62% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cremonese
Probability
62.5%
Model confidence
10.1%
Cremonese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80