Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Palmeiras · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Coritiba are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Palmeiras are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Palmeiras hold an 18.5-point power-rating edge (49.2 v 67.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.9% in the Serie A, while Palmeiras holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 39% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Palmeiras
Probability
51.9%
Model confidence
51.9%
Palmeiras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60