Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Coritiba · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Coritiba are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLLWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Cruzeiro are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Cruzeiro hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (49.2 v 51.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.5% in the Serie A, while Coritiba holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 40% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Coritiba
Probability
35.5%
Model confidence
35.5%
Coritiba has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20