Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bahia · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Coritiba are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLDLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Bahia are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (DLLDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Bahia hold a 4.7-point power-rating edge (49.2 v 53.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 14.9% in the Serie A, while Bahia holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bahia
Probability
35.6%
Model confidence
14.9%
Bahia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80