Corinthiansvs
Atletico Paranaense
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie A · 7/30/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Corinthians are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Atletico Paranaense are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Atletico Paranaense hold a 6.8-point power-rating edge (53.2 v 60.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 25.3% in the Serie A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 17% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
25.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80