Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mercedes · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Claypole are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Mercedes are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Mercedes hold a 13.3-point power-rating edge (41.0 v 54.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 32.5% in the Primera C, while Mercedes holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 17% BTTS chance and 11% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Mercedes
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
32.5%
Mercedes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80