Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Botafogo · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Cienciano are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Botafogo are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DWDWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Botafogo hold a 33.6-point power-rating edge (48.7 v 82.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.1% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Botafogo holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 36% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Botafogo
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
15.1%
Botafogo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80