Cianortevs
Guarany de Bagé
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie D · 4/5/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cianorte · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Cianorte are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Guarany de Bagé are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Cianorte hold a 26.3-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 24.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 56.1% in the Serie D, while Cianorte holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cianorte
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
56.1%
Cianorte has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80