Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
13%
MediumconfidenceChorley are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Chester are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Chester hold a 56.7-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 80.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the National League - North, favouring a draw with 13.4% confidence, a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
28.0%
Model confidence
13.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChorleyWDLLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ChesterLDWWW
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ChorleyChester
33.3Attack66.7
33.3Defence66.7
0.0Form100.0
23.7Power80.3
1.16xG1.52