Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chorley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-0
Chorley are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWDLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Bury are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LWWLL), averaging 1.40 scored and 3.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Chorley hold a 56.8-point power-rating edge (63.8 v 7.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Chorley holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 57% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chorley
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
Chorley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00