Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Chico are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLDLL), averaging 0.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Jaguares are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Jaguares hold a 5.7-point power-rating edge (30.2 v 35.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.5% in the Primera A, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20