GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 5/24/2026, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Chicago Fire are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLLW), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Toronto FC are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 16.8-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.6% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 68% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chicago Fire

Probability

65.6%

Model confidence

65.6%

Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Chicago FireWWLLW

GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Toronto FCLLLDL

GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Chicago FireToronto FC
62.7Attack44.4
54.9Defence40.7
56.9Form31.5
58.6Power41.8
2.54xG1.05
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