Chicago Firevs
Sporting Kansas City
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 4/26/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0
Chicago Fire are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DWWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Sporting Kansas City are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 31.1-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 27.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 85.3% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 85% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 50% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
85.3%
Model confidence
85.3%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80