Chicago Firevs
Portland Timbers
SCHEDULEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 8/16/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Chicago Fire are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Portland Timbers are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 10.2-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 48.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.0% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
58.7%
Model confidence
9.0%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80