GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 5/9/2026, 6:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1

Highconfidence

Chicago Fire are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while New York Red Bulls are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 13.5-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 45.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 67.8% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chicago Fire

Probability

67.8%

Model confidence

67.8%

Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Chicago FireLWDWW

GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
New York Red BullsLLDLD

GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Chicago FireNew York Red Bulls
62.7Attack53.7
54.9Defence27.8
56.9Form46.3
58.6Power45.0
3.05xG1.29
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