Chicago Firevs
New York Red Bulls
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 5/9/2026, 6:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-1
Chicago Fire are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while New York Red Bulls are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 13.5-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 45.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 67.8% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 68% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 69% BTTS chance and 79% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
67.8%
Model confidence
67.8%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 14 · avg 1.40/2.80