GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 5/3/2026, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-2

Highconfidence

Chicago Fire are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.80 conceded, while FC Cincinnati are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (WDDDL), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 7.7-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 50.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.4% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 83% BTTS chance and 89% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chicago Fire

Probability

58.4%

Model confidence

58.4%

Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Chicago FireWDWWW

GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
FC CincinnatiWDDDL

GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Chicago FireFC Cincinnati
62.7Attack83.3
54.9Defence18.5
56.9Form48.1
58.6Power50.9
3.39xG2.02
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