Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crewe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Chester are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Crewe are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LWDWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 49.5 against 50.3. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.7% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Crewe holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 72% BTTS chance and 71% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Crewe
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Crewe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00