Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelsea · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Chelsea are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWD), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Juventus are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDDL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Chelsea hold a 20.1-point power-rating edge (61.0 v 40.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 48.0% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Chelsea holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 75% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chelsea
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Chelsea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80