Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fafe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Chaves are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWWLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Fafe are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Fafe hold a 6.0-point power-rating edge (49.5 v 55.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.9% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Fafe holds the strongest overall chance at 39% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fafe
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
11.9%
Fafe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00