Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chaves · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Chaves are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLWL), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Chaves II are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDWWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Chaves hold a 25.9-point power-rating edge (49.5 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.8% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Chaves holds the strongest overall chance at 48% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 59% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chaves
Probability
48.3%
Model confidence
11.8%
Chaves has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00